The "Conservative" Case for a Bitcoin Rally to $50,000
March 30th, 2019
While the value of Bitcoin remains down in the dumps, so to speak, its believers still have stars in their eyes. Many crypto investors are adamant that their holdings will eventually retest their all-time highs, prior to another jaw-dropping rally.
And while countless cynics have begged to differ, these hopes were validated recently with an extremely optimistic, yet potentially rational tweet from Ryan Selkis, the chief executive of Messari.
“Great Wealth Transfer” To Spark Bitcoin Rally?
It isn’t a secret that crypto’s audience is primarily millennial and younger. It makes sense. Cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, are inherently digital, and of the Internet, as Jack Dorsey recently put it.
Selkis used this demographic fact to his advantage, recently writing on Twitter that as millennials en-masse inherit $30 trillion from their baby boomer parents over the coming decades, much of the money could find its way into digital assets, meant for the Information Age that society currently resides in.
Messari’s chief writes that if even 1% of the $30 trillion floods into crypto, which equates to about $300 billion, BTC could find itself conservatively at $50,000. This doesn’t exactly add up, but the call does make sense.
As hinted at in a previous NewsBTC report, due to the shallow order books (low liquidity) that are a byproduct of nascent markets, U.S. dollars that enter this market have often had an amplified effect on the value of digital assets. Per analysis compiled by Alex Kruger, a leading markets researcher, JP Morgan claims that for the crypto assets at large, a fiat amplifier of 117.5 is present, as a purported $2 billion in net inflow pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization from $15 billion to $250 billion But, this isn’t the whole story. Citigroup purportedly estimated an amplifier of 50, while Chris Burniske of Placeholder Ventures calculated the figure out to somewhere between two and 25.
Considering a low-end estimate of ten times, that means the “great wealth transfer” that Selkis refers to could boost cryptocurrency’s value by $3 trillion, thus setting the stage for BTC tosurmount $50,000.
Crypto Cynics Aren’t Too Sure
Although Selkis was fairly convinced that his thesis is entirely probable, some begged to differ. David Silver explained that if his parents left him with money, he would not invest in Bitcoin, explaining that allocating inheretance money to cryptocurrencies “IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY.”
Others were less overtly sardonic, and were instead, skeptically optimistic. David Nage explained that while the transfer of wealth could be massive for cryptocurrencies, especially in an increasingly digital world, money won’t flow in on a whim. In other words, if the technology and infrastructure stay stagnant, it is nonsensical to assume that fiat from estates will rush into digital assets, whether it be Bitcoin, Ethereum, or otherwise, without a proper catalyst.
Thus, Nage concludes that if the “conservative case” is to come to fruition, industry stakeholders will need to continue putting their nose to the grindstone, so to speak, to create an inviting environment for the mentioned hypothesized wealth transfer.